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As explained by AuroraWhite below, it's more likely that GX's old order of killing Zhuowen was what resulted in his twin's death, rather than her ordering a new kill. She had no reason to order a kill after ep39. And she wasn't vindictive exactly, she just did anything it took for her own and her brother's survival (and given her past, it's not surprising). I'm not condoning any of her actions, but they're understandable.

Also, Zhuowu is much the same when you think about it. He tortured and killed without any compunction. It's only because he's on what's supposed to be the "good" side of this war that it's deemed acceptable. But everyone involved in a war believes their side is the good side (or has no choice but to do whatever is required for their side to win, whether it's for their own survival or for what's touted as the greater good).

As to why GX escaped the death penalty when Hu Bin didn't, Hu Bin was far worse than Guan Xue and killed far more people (even though Guan Xue probably was aware of many of his actions, and may have ordered some of them and turned a blind eye to the rest). She had far less blood on her hands when you consider actual killing. That's what Song Zhuowen was referring to in ep39 when he said she could get life sentence instead of death penalty. Quite honestly, I think the life sentence is worse for someone like her.

Also, much as I disliked Hu Bin, I didn't like that parading about in ep40. Just kill him directly.

I figured the time gap and that the probably target was Zhuowen last night (I needed an explanation before I could sleep 😂). But your explanation ties everything up nicely with historical references. Thank you!

As to the killing, if we assume the first case (which I agree is way more likely, because she had no reason to order a kill after ep39), then her follower killed Zhuowu 3 years after the order was given. Because ep40 takes place 8 years after ep39 (in your timeline), and the killing was apparently 5 years prior to ep40 (if the subtitles were correct). That follower sure takes his orders seriously!

Unless Guan Xue didn't have the exact same experience as Puyi and was arrested soon after ep39 and taken directly to Fushun (or whatever existed before it). I feel like, as someone who took self-preservation very seriously, she may not have been loyal to the emperor when it became clear he had no chance.

They mutually supported each other so well.

Major spoilers below!

How did we get from the end of 39 to 40? Did Guan Xue surrender?
And if so, when was she able to order the execution of Zhuowu?

I watched 40 before 39, and now that I've watched 39, I'm confused.

Not really... (I don't know if you want spoilers)

Another related theory:

When Zhuowen wanted to turn Guan Xue, Qian was insistent that GX was the enemy and that Zhuowen "shouldn't change the enemy". At that point, they show the flashback of GX shooting a man (who we now know is her uncle). Could Qian know GX's uncle ?

Just finished watching ep37.

I mean seriously, how did Pan Yue think of this at all? How could he possibly have known who did it or that Jin helped cover it up?

Also, Hu Bin immediately thinking of assault when his brain cells normally work at snail's pace... unless he believes GX wouldn't have done such a thing without a good reason.
(We as the audience are shown her flashbacks and reactions, so we can make reasonable guesses. But aren't others more likely to think that she did it for her uncle's wealth or some other nefarious reason?)

It would have been better if the uncle character (and GX's visits) were shown closer to the beginning of the drama. If Pan Yue had begun his observations then, this might seem more plausible. As it is, we're shown the uncle in one episode, and Pan Yue has it all solved in the next.
(Apparently the uncle character was added halfway through filming, which explains why we see him only towards the end. But it does make for some unbelievable watching if Pan Yue can just make these deductions so quickly)

The pity is, this could very easily have been a compelling character-driven suspense drama without this level of violence. The individual characters are interesting.

Edited after watching finale. Very spoiler-filled

Guan Xue hasn't had a happy life at all...
Parents died when she's 10, leaving little brother in her care.
Witnessing and surviving a massacre.
(Possibly) abuse at the hands of someone she trusted.
Experienced some level of torture (her scars).
Lil bro gone :(

And ultimately in jail for a long time.

Then again, she's authorized the deaths of other innocent people, so shouldn't feel too sorry, I suppose. And yet...

I was thinking exactly the same thing when I watched. Unless he was paranoid from the start and his entire conversation was on purpose for the benefit of GX and Jin. But it seems unlikely.

Suspense is good, but the actions still have to be explainable.

If he'd eaten it long before he was caught, why did he run away? But then, he was young and probably afraid, so maybe that's why.

Tbh, I couldn't get through the scene, so I don't know. That scene traumatized me. Though I remember that I did later wonder what happened to the letter.
A very recently swallowed paper couldn't have made its way too far down the digestive tract...

I agree about the violence. It's a pity they chose to go down that route, because I think that alone probably put many people off watching this.

She did outright ask him once, and her questions implied that she believed he was.

The young man who is helping Zhuowen at the post office swallows it (and then follows a truly horrible scene where Pan Yue tries to recover it).

I think GX's uncle may have SA'd (or attempted to) her when she was younger.

When Xie Yue is sobbing after the (second) SA attempt on her, GX thinks about her uncle, for some reason. And according to Ep36, she later shot him and felt relief/happiness afterwards (unless the flashbacks are deliberately misleading).

I have a slightly disturbing theory (which may have been explicitly mentioned in the drama already)

Go for it (I think I can guess)

Apart from Hu Bin?