WK1

Which MDL page?

At this moment, the most important item will be the official airing date of TBW. They are reluctant to give us the airing date, likely because they are still fixing some post production matters.

Toward the end of Feb would have been an ideal airing date for TBW. The main Winter Games will be over, although there are para Winter Games coming in March. There are less people in China watching the para Games. And Mirror Twin Cities would have finished its run.

We cannot think of any reason why they would not want to show this in end Feb, except maybe post production proves to be a challenge and they want to spend more time tidying the CGI and other post production issues.

Even if they missed the Feb deadline, we can still hope for March. The para Winter Games will be over by March 13.

I am aware that some awards can be bought by agencies, and even followers on Weibo can also be bought. But agencies can only go so far. At the end of the day, followers on Weibo can still exercise their freedom to remain with a certain actor or actress, and I do not think agencies have the resources to pay these followers year after year (even if we assume that they can be bought in the first year).

Take Dilraba, for instance. She has about 76 million followers in Weibo. For the sake of discussion, let us assume that Jaywalk needs to pay $ 1 a year to keep each follower, that works out to be a whopping $ 76m! Do you really Jaywalk will that?? And how about Yang Mi? She has more than 100m followers. Do you really think Jaywalk has so much money to 'pay' all these followers?? I do not think so.

At the end of they day, the number of followers will still be decided by the followers themselves. If an actor or an actress performs well in a drama, that person will simply pick up more followers. Like Dilraba, for instance. After YAMG, she must have picked up even more followers. Likewise, for Cheng Yi, who picked up more followers after Love and Redemption.

If Cheng Yi's previous agency did not get him important lead roles, we cannot fault Allen Ren at all. He should have done better research on the background and track record of various entertainment agencies before deciding which one to join. No one forced Cheng Yi to join his previous agency.

Dilraba must have done that, researching on Jaywalk before deciding to join that agency. And even within Jaywalk, it was hardly a walk in the park for her. She had to compete with so many other female artistes within Jaywalk. At the end of the day, it was her hardwork and talent that brought her to the lofty place in the entertainment industry that she is in right now.

Cheng Yi can do the same. He is given lots of opportunities now. He cannot complain that Allen is getting more opportunities, because they are now in the same agency. I do not think Huanrui favours Allen over him. All actors have to fight for roles, and producers/directors will only pick those they feel will deliver the goods.

Yes, acting awards and number of followers in Weibo cannot determine who is a better actor, especially acting awards that are determined by popularity votes and not by a panel of independend judges (like the Academy Awards in the US).

But we do need some metrics to compare. Those are nice proxies to use. Another metric we can use will be the number of views for all the dramas that they act in, especially those with them in leading roles. If we use ALL of these metrics together, we should get a pretty good picture who are better, even though it does not mean that the losers are bad actors/actresss. It just means that more people preferred certain actors/actresses over others.

That is what I was implying, that the large age gap between Liu Ye and Reba makes it very unlikely that there will any romance between the two of them. He would likely end up to be her boss in the drama, not her lover.

Next week will be critical. If we do not get either the airing date or any promotional materials, it does mean that we will not get it in Feb.

I feel the same way.

I see. Let's see what happens in TBW and LOA. See if you feel more chemistry between her and Allen and Simon Gong.

Do not worry. If it is at all possible, they will not want to push it to April. That will affect all their other dramas, like Immortal Samara and Legend of Anle. The only condition under which they will do that is if they encounter serious issue with the CGI during post production. Hopefully, this is not the case.

The CGI for TBW can be tricky, because of Allen's fishtail. It must be somewhat challenging to get it right.

If it is a simple typewritten tweet, cannot be trusted. Anyone can do that without investing too much time. If it is a poster, less likely, as that person will need at least an hour or so to do it up.

Hi Folks, let us wait patiently. The Winter Games are still on, and they have two mega stars.

They have 15 year old ice princess, Kamila Valieva from Russia, who is due to perform tomorrow and Thursday. All eyes will be on her, to see if she can win the individual ice skating event, which is the premier event at the Winter Games.

Then, there is 18 year old snow princess, Eileen Gu, from China (born in the USA). She is due to compete in two disciplines over the next few days. She already won one Gold Medal, and she win jammed up Weibo, the same way YAMG jammed up Tencent's streaming platforms last Summer.

Last day of competition is this Sat.

Also, bear in mind, last two weeks, it is Chinese New Year holidays in China, so many staff at Youku could be on leave and did not really have all that much time to work on TBW.

So, let's see if they will give us some promotional contents after this Sunday (the closing ceremony).

You can be sure that both Reba and Allen are observing Youku carefully. If there is hardly any promotion, Youku can kiss goodbye to any future collaboration. I say this very very carefully. If Youku spent millions on the CGI for TBW to make it a smash hit, Youku could be forgiven.

For the record, Allen (32) is only one year older than Cheng Yi (31). Interestingly, they both acted in Noble Aspirations 1 and 2, in 2016; and Cheng Yi actually had a more prominent role in that series. But, after that, Allen's career took off faster than Cheng Yi, in that he got more lead roles than Cheng Yi.

Cheng Yi was the main lead for 3 dramas, Allen ended up as the main lead for almost 10 dramas! Cheng Yi scored a very big hit in Love and Redemption, but Allen had more hits (Under the power; One and Only; Forever and Ever; Glory of the Tang Dynasty).

In terms of acting awards, I checked the most convenient source, Wikipedia. Allen won more than Cheng Yi.

As for Yang Zi and Dilraba , it is really difficult to compare. They are both the same age now, 29. But Yang Zi was a child actress. Her first role in a drama came in 2001, when she was only 9 years old; first role in a movie when she was 16.

While Dilraba's first role came in 2013, when she was already 20. So Yang Zi had a big big head start over Reba. To say that Reba only managed to have more followers than Yang Zi because of the last two years, we cannot really tell. May need to go back to 2020, see how many followers each had. But, we can tell, because of the huge headstart that Yang Zi had over Reba, Reba caught up her through hardwork and her talents.

They have both won a number of acting awards, although if you go to wikipedia, Reba's list is slightly longer than Yang Zi's. They both attended drama schools. They both have many big hits, Yang Zi more than Reba, but over the last 2 years, Reba already caught up with Yang Zi. Reba likely has more endorsement deals than Yang Zi, again, particularly over the last 2 years.

I have chosen to follow Reba rather than Yang Zi, not because I feel that Reba is better than Yang Zi in terms of acting. I feel that they are both equally good. But Reba comes from a minority ethnic group in China. For her to come as far as she has speaks volumes about her talents, hardwork; and the strength of her character, in ignoring all those people who say she does not look Chinese enough to act in historical dramas. You could say, I have a soft spot for underdogs.

In terms of character, both Yang Zi and Reba are great. Both have remained scandal free. I follow Reba, so I know she is really humble as a person. Those who are following Yang Zi, I am sure they will say the same about her.

I would hope that both Immortal Samara and TBW will do well. They will not clash directly, so the viewers in China will get to watch both.

That has to with Xiaozhan. They held it back because he was involved in some kind of scandal in early 2020. They wanted to wait till the scandal was over. One thing led to another and caused the massive delay for The Oath of Love. Many of us were waiting for that drama, after YAMG, but it never came.

Nothing like that is happening to TBW. Both the leads are not involved in any kind of scandals or rumours.

The only thing that is currently holding TBW is post production. Nothing else. And talking about post production, TBW has a massive lead against IS. It finished filming in June last year. You can check, but I think IS finished filming in Oct.

I do not think you need to be concerned that I may have offended fans of Yang Zi or Cheng Yi. If they bother to read my comments in a post not too far below, they will know what I think of Yang Zi. She is already regarded as one of the best actresses of her generation, regardless of fan base size.

But I have very little doubt that viewership of a drama in China is greatly influenced by fan bases. It is not the only factor, but certainly a significant factor.

I know what you mean. But fan bases are undisputed figures. I am not trying to imply that the larger the fan bases the better those actors and actresses are. Some of the best actors/actresses in China do not have very big fan bases. They are good because they are able to reach beyond their fan bases.

But some producers may well be tempted to use fan base numbers to make more money, especially if they are short of money. I doubt Youku is.

I think the strength of the fan bases is a good indication of viewership in China, as fans in China usually support their idols. If Reba and Allen do have stronger fan bases than Yang Zi and Cheng Yi, it will make no sense for them to air IS first. If the reverse is true, and Yang Zi and Cheng Yi's fan bases are twice that of Reba and Allen, Youku may well be tempted to air IS first.

I am just trying to show that it does not make sense for Youku to air IS ahead of TBW, that no matter which way we look at it, whether in terms of which drama has airing license first, which has more fan bases, to rule any criteria Youku might use to give IS any unfair advantage over TBW.

We had a trailer a while ago. You must be referring to a new trailer?? That may come after the Winter Games., which will end by this Sat. Closing ceremony is on 20 Feb.

Yes. I thought so too. How about Allen versus Cheng Yi? Do you know who has more?

I cannot think of any reason why Youku would want to put IS ahead of TBW. I am not even sure they can do that, even if they wanted to. Not when IS has not even received its broadcasting license, when TBW already did so more than 2 months.

In terms of star power, the combined number of fans for Reba and Allen is surely larger than the number for Yang Zi and Cheng Yi, and both Reba and Allen have better dramas in 2021 than Yang Zi or Cheng Yi.

So, I cannot think of any rational basis why Youku would want to air IS ahead of TBW.